Long-termism and Economic Growth: Exploring Well-being, Risk, and Morality
The relationship between long-termism and economic growth is explored, considering well-being effects, existential risk, and moral aspects. Promoting slower economic growth may decrease existential risk.
00:00:02 Professor Hilary Graves discusses the relationship between long-termism and economic growth, exploring arguments regarding the well-being effects of faster consumption, the promotion of altruism and morality, and the impact on existential risk.
📚 Long-termism focuses on the far future effects of our actions, and the talk explores the impact of economic growth on the long-term future.
📈 Tyler Karens argues that faster economic growth is crucial for well-being, while Benjamin Friedman believes it promotes altruism and morality to solve global problems.
⚖️ The discussion also examines the relationship between economic growth and existential risk, with considerations of state risks versus transition risks.
00:03:46 The video discusses the relationship between long-termism, economic growth, and overall welfare. It explores the argument that boosting consumption and promoting sustainable economic growth can lead to significant well-being gains in the future. However, it also highlights the potential limitations of this argument, considering factors such as diminishing marginal utility of consumption and the likelihood of future consumption growth. Additionally, the video briefly mentions the argument that economic growth can shape social, political, and moral aspects of a society. The connection between economic growth and existential risk is also touched upon.
📈 Long-term economic growth can lead to significant well-being gains in the future.
🤔 The utility gains from economic growth may diminish in the far future due to the likelihood of significant future consumption growth and diminishing marginal utility.
🌍 Economic growth not only improves individual living standards but also shapes social, political, and moral aspects of a society.
00:07:31 In this video, the speaker explores the relationship between economic growth and existential risk. They argue that embracing a fanatical point of view, where actions that reduce existential risk are prioritized, is important. They discuss the distinction between state risks and transition risks and evaluate the impact of economic growth on existential state risks. They propose that faster economic growth can decrease total existential state risk by accelerating progress and reducing the time of perils.
👉 Embracing a fanatical point of view involves minimizing existential risk in decision-making.
💡 State risks have a constant rate per unit time, while transition risks are associated with changing states.
⏰ Speeding up economic growth can lower total existential state risk by minimizing the time of perils.
00:11:16 The video discusses the relationship between long-term safety and economic growth, exploring different versions of the existential security hypothesis and the role of wisdom and artificial general intelligence in mitigating existential risks.
💡 According to the existential security hypothesis, economic growth is necessary for rational utility maximizers to prioritize safety measures.
💭 The lack of progress in wisdom is hindering our ability to address existential threats posed by advancing technology.
🧠 Economic growth may contribute to progress in wisdom, although the relationship is not definitive.
🤖 Faster economic growth can potentially accelerate the development of friendly artificial general intelligence (AGI).
⚖️ Changes in economic growth rate should also consider the impact on the probability of achieving friendly AGI.
00:14:58 The argument explores the timing of dangerous transitions in relation to economic growth, considering factors such as existential risks and moral progress. Slower economic growth may be preferable for delaying dangerous transitions and allowing for moral progress and safety research.
📚 Certain transitions in economic development generate existential risks.
📈 Faster economic growth tends to increase these risks.
⏳ Slower economic growth may be beneficial to delay dangerous transitions.
00:18:40 The video discusses the relationship between economic growth and existential risk. Slower economic growth may decrease existential risk, but implementing such a policy raises questions of feasibility and acceptability.
📚 Slowing economic growth may also slow down progress towards AGI and safety research.
💡 Safety research may be slowed down less, favoring slower economic growth.
🔄 Transition risks seem to favor slower economic growth over state risks in terms of existential risk.
00:22:23 This video discusses the relationship between long-termism and economic growth. It explores the idea that promoting slower economic growth may be better from the perspective of existential risk. The speaker also touches on the concept of transition risks in relation to AI and other political agreements.
📚 Longtermism and economic growth need to be considered in relation to existential risks.
🔄 Transition risks, such as the transition to AGI, can have significant impacts on the future.
🤝 Collaboration with the Global Priorities Institute is possible through workshops and research programs.
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