Analyzing the Potential Impact of Government Shutdown and Bitcoin Performance

This video discusses the potential impact of government shutdown, Bitcoin's performance, and market trends.

00:00:00 In this video, the speaker discusses the upcoming potential government shutdown, the uncertainty around a debt trade on Bitcoin, and the events to watch in the next week. They caution against using a certain price level as a long entry trigger.

πŸ’‘ There are potential challenges ahead, including the end of the month and quarter and a potential government shutdown.

πŸ“‰ There is skepticism about the current trade on bitcoin, with expectations of a breakdown.

πŸ“… Upcoming events include Fed speakers, PCE readings, and employment data, making the first week of October interesting.

00:02:37 A discussion on the possibility of a government shutdown and its potential impact on the market, with a focus on Bitcoin's performance during past shutdowns and other related events.

πŸ“‰ A recession typically occurs after an inversion, but unemployment has not yet risen.

πŸ“Š The yield curve and short duration are currently important factors.

πŸ’° In 2018, there were various events that negatively impacted the market, including a government shutdown, trade war, and cryptocurrency issues.

00:05:16 A discussion about market trends and the potential impact of the DXY on Bitcoin. Bitcoin's performance post-halving is the focus, while noting the unusual positive September for Bitcoin.

πŸ“ˆ Bitcoin has held strong despite the strength of dxy.

πŸ’΅ The dollar's strength doesn't affect Bitcoin's post-halving moment.

πŸ”’ Bitcoin may see a drop in price if dxy regathers strength.

00:07:54 Cautious outlook for Ethereum as it is a riskier digital asset. Euro's weak performance raises concerns. Potential impact of upcoming deadlines. Some hope for approval of BlackRock ETF.

πŸ“ˆ Ethereum is considered a riskier digital asset with unfavorable seasonality.

πŸ’± The relationship between Bitcoin and the Euro has tightened recently, indicating potential market shifts.

πŸ”€ Caution is advised as the market may either recouple strongly with the Euro or decouple completely.

⚠️ Upcoming deadlines, including the SEC deadline against gbtc and the BlackRock ETF approval, could impact the market.

00:10:32 Analyzing Bitcoin's correlation with real yields, altcoin market breakdown potential, stablecoin market cap relevance, and SP's divergence from real yields and job openings.

πŸ“ˆ Bitcoin's performance is closely correlated with real yields, and if real yields continue to rise, altcoins are expected to break down.

πŸ’° As real yields rise, stablecoin market cap becomes less important, and investing in stablecoins becomes less attractive compared to higher real yields.

πŸ“‰ There is a wide divergence between the S&P and 10-year real yield, indicating a potential continuation of the S&P's downward trend.

πŸ“Š There is a significant divergence between job openings (jolts) and the performance of the S&P, suggesting a possible upcoming correction.

00:13:12 In this video, the speaker discusses the potential breakdown of Bitcoin and Ethereum due to a possible legacy meltdown in October. They also mention the issues surrounding BNB and highlight Monero BTC as a bullish trade to watch. Links is still ranging and not a buy until it surpasses 8.50.

πŸ“‰ Legacy crashes have historically happened in October, which may pose a risk to the crypto market.

πŸ“‰ ETH is expected to have a weak performance for the rest of the year, but may improve post-2024.

πŸ” BNB is facing challenges and its performance may impact the overall crypto market.

πŸ“ˆ Monero BTC shows a promising pattern, potentially indicating a bullish trade.

βš–οΈ Links is still in a range and not recommended as a buy until it surpasses a certain level.

00:15:50 A market analysis video discusses unusual whale activity, bearish patterns in the stock market, and the potential for market lows.

πŸ‹ Whale activity is causing a decrease in the availability of a certain asset on exchanges.

πŸ“‰ There is bearish sentiment in the market, with reversal patterns and head and shoulders formations.

πŸ“š The overall performance of the market has been mediocre, with flat returns for most investors.

Summary of a video "Setup Sunday: Something's Gotta Give" by Josh Olszewicz on YouTube.

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