Reasons for Oil Price Drop, Importance of Non-Farm Payroll Data, and Yellen's Concerns

📊 The ADP data and the decrease in oil prices by 5.6% are discussed.

💲 The possible impact of the Federal Reserve's stance on a 'hard landing' is explored.

📉 The oversold condition of the S&P 500 and other indicators are analyzed.

📉 The small non-farm data released today, with only 89,000 new jobs, is much lower than expected.

📊 Both small and large non-farm data show a clear slowdown in job growth.

💰 The economist from ADP shared that wage growth has been slowing down in the past 12 months, indicating that concerns about inflation due to strong job data are unfounded.

📊 The impact of a strike on employment data and GDP.

🚗💰 The consequences of a strike for car companies and workers.

⛽📉 The recent drop in gasoline demand and its implications for oil prices.

💡 The international price of oil reached almost $85 per barrel and increased to $94 per barrel in September.

💰 The refinery margin, or crack spread, which represents the profit for refineries, experienced a significant decline in August, despite the rising oil prices.

📉 The decline in the crack spread suggests a decrease in market demand and a decrease in the pricing power of refineries.

📉 The decline in Korean exports and Chinese demand for oil suggests that oil prices will continue to fall.

💰 The sell-off in the bond market threatens the hope of an economic soft landing, as both foreign and domestic investors reduce their demand for US bonds.

📉 While the increase in US bond yields may be partly due to oversupply, a recession would have a much stronger impact on bond market investors and drive yields higher.

⚠️ Janet Yellen's statement about high long-term bond yields implies that if yields remain high and continue to rise, there is a hidden meaning behind it.

💰 The increased cost of government financing will lead to a rise in government expenses.

📉 Rising interest rates will have a significant impact on the US government and GDP growth.

📊 Technical indicators suggest that the current market is not as oversold as previous periods.

📈 The upcoming quarterly earnings reports and recent Federal Reserve meeting are important indicators for understanding the market.

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